The product our clients act on.

Sanitized assessments from the same intelligence cell that supports our deployed teams. What you read here has been stripped of sources and methods and cleared for release — the judgment is the same one we hand a commander on the ground.

Threat RMH-INT-0434 · 21 JUN 2026

The 2026 fragility map: where instability becomes a private problem

Our standing read on the corridors, contested coastlines, and governance vacuums most likely to demand a private response this year — scored on probability, proximity to client interests, and how fast a situation can move from headline to evacuation.

Maritime

The next chokepoint, before it closes

Red Sea and Gulf of Aden risk, week by week.

Stabilization

Why some transitions hold and others don't

Patterns from our sovereign engagements.

Cyber & Signals

Principals targeted before they land

Pre-travel digital threat reduction.

RMH-INT-0431ThreatThe Sahel corridor is hardening — and so are the actors holding itJNIM and ISWAP have shifted from raiding to road control across the tri-border. We map the segments where convoy movement now requires a deliberate threat decision, not a logistics one.7 MIN READ RMH-INT-0428MaritimeReading the Red Sea before the convoys rerouteHull-strike patterns and AIS-spoofing density tell you a reroute is coming days before the underwriters price it. Our weekly Bab-el-Mandeb / Gulf of Aden read for clients moving tonnage.6 MIN READ RMH-INT-0425ProtectiveEmbassy threat posture: when the standoff distance is already goneFor missions in dense urban ground, the perimeter is rented real estate, not a wall. How we re-score posture when the approach has already been built up to the gate.FOR CLIENT RELEASE RMH-INT-0422Cyber & SignalsTargeted before they land: pre-travel digital threat reduction for principalsHostile services build the principal from open data weeks ahead of arrival. A disciplined seventy-two-hour scrub of device, identity, and pattern-of-life shrinks the surface they planned against.5 MIN READ RMH-INT-0419StabilizationWhat separates a transition that holds from one that collapsesAcross our sovereign engagements, durable transitions share three traits — none of them is the size of the security force. Where elite control, payroll continuity, and a credible exit actually sit.9 MIN READ RMH-INT-0416Cyber & SignalsThe ransomware crews now hunting extractivesA cluster of access brokers has pivoted from healthcare to mining and oilfield OT. We profile the initial-access tradecraft and the one segmentation gap that keeps showing up in remote-site SCADA.6 MIN READ RMH-INT-0413ThreatCheap drones, fixed sites, and the math of static defenseCommercial-airframe proliferation has put a precision threat in the hands of actors who could never field one before. What a credible counter-UAS posture costs a static site — and what it does not buy.7 MIN READ RMH-INT-0409GeopoliticsDue diligence on a counterparty before the ink, not afterA clean corporate registry is not a clean counterparty. How our cell reads beneficial ownership, sanctions adjacency, and local enforcer relationships before a client commits to the deal.8 MIN READ RMH-INT-0405MaritimeKidnap-for-ransom is migrating back offshoreGulf of Guinea boarding gangs are working further from the coast and holding crews longer. The negotiation timeline has changed; the pre-transit hardening that actually moves the odds has not.6 MIN READ

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